2014. China's Coal Import Behavior and Its Impacts to Global Energy Market, 2014.
Globalization, Development and Security in Asia. 3:69-85., Singapore: World Scientific Publishing Abstract
China, the world biggest coal producer and consumer, imported 234 million ton (Mt) of coal in 2012. China has long been a net coal exporter. However, the global coal market witnessed one of the most dramatic realignments it has ever seen since 2009. This inversion of China's role in global coal markets meant that Chinese imports accounted for nearly 30% of all globally traded coal, and China became the focal point of global demand as traditional import markets like Europe and Japan stagnated in the wake of the financial crisis. The middle kingdom's appetite for imported coal seems insatiable, and the "China Factor" appears to have ushered in a new paradigm for the global coal market. In this paper we devise a model that explains Chinese coal import patterns and that can allow the coal market to understand, and to some degree predict, China's coal import behavior. They argue that the unique structure of the Chinese coal market creates a series of key arbitrage relationships between Chinese domestic coal markets and international coal markets that determine Chinese import patterns. The implications of this argument are significant for the development of the global coal trade in the coming decade. The arbitrage relationships directly link the domestic price of coal in China to the global price of coal. Developments in China's domestic coal market will be a dominant factor determining global coal prices and trade flows (and by implication power prices in many regions). This makes understanding the domestic Chinese coal market, which operates according to a unique economic and political logic, crucial for any participant in the global markets, economic incentives and constrains will have better chance to be implemented successfully.
2014. Engaging Emerging Countries: Implications of China’s Major Shifts in Climate Policy.
Governments’ Responses to Climate Change: Selected Examples From Asia Pacific. :11–24., Singapore: Springer Abstract
Engaging developing countries, especially emerging counties such as Brazil, Russia, India and China, is a central challenge for international climate policy. While the world is still debating the outcome of international climate negotiations, China has been quietly developing its leadership in clean energy and moving towards a low-carbon economy and society. By end 2009, for instance, China had become the world’s leading new wind installer, solar exporter and new nuclear capacity constructor, in total, as well as the world’s top investor in clean energy, while at the same time becoming the world’s biggest carbon dioxide emitter. China’s move towards a low-carbon economy will have big implications on global energy and climate policy. China’s transition typifies a unique opportunity for developed economies to engage emerging economies in the global climate efforts.
Is Your City Really Sustainable? A Tale of Jinan City Using Quantitative Low- Carbon Eco-city Tools
2014 ACEEE Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Buildings,. :119-130., Pacific Grove, CA Abstract
Low-carbon eco-city development is one of the key approaches taken by the Chinese government to achieve its international commitment of reducing carbon intensity by 40% to 45% by 2020, as well as other national targets. Cities have planned and implemented various measures to fulfill these goals; however, most of the plans lacked explicit targets, metrics, and implementation mechanisms, and strategies undertaken are often too vague and piecemeal, therefore hindering their effectiveness. To fill these gaps and significantly accelerate the speed of developing low-carbon and eco-city plans, and to facilitate selection and implementation of sound policy apparatus at a large scale, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory has developed multiple tools based on both international and Chinese best practices. This paper introduces the application of two of the tools in Jinan, China. The Benchmarking and Energy Saving Tool for Low Carbon Cities (BEST Cities) focuses on energy savings and carbon emissions reduction potential and strategies. The Eco and Low-carbon Indicator Tool for Evaluating Cities (ELITE Cities) has a broader scope that includes air, water, and land use. These tools help cities benchmark and evaluate performance, track progress, and provide practical and scientific prescriptions. This paper sheds light on understanding where a city falls on the path to sustainability, quantifies the city's sectoral energy-and carbon-saving potentials, and reveals challenges and barriers a city may have in implementing the tools and policies. The prioritized policy recommendations made are based on the carbon savings impact, the city's capacity to act, and the government's program costs.
Where, when and how much wind is available? A provincial-scale wind resource assessment for China
Energy Policy. 74:116-122. Abstract
China’s wind installed capacity has grown at a remarkable rate, over 80 percent annually average growth since 2005, reaching 91.5 GW of capacity by end of 2013, accounting for over 27 percent of global capacity. This rapid growth has been the result of a domestic manufacturing base and favorable national policies. Further evolution will be greatly aided with a detailed wind resource assessment that incorporates spatial and temporal variability across China. We utilized 200 representative locations for which 10 years of hourly wind speed data exist to develop provincial capacity factors from 2001 to 2010, and to build analytic wind speed profiles. From these data and analysis we find that China’s annual wind generation could reach 2,000 TWh to 3,500 TWh. Nationally this would correspond to an average capacity factor of 0.18. The diurnal and seasonal variation shows spring and winter has better wind resources than in the summer and fall. A highly interconnected and coordinated power system is needed to effectively exploit this large but variable resource. A full economic assessment of exploitable wind resources demands a larger, systems-level analysis of China's energy options, for which this work is a core requirement.